The Catering Test – A Hidden Sign Of Economic Downturn

I suppose, as Honorary Secretary of a small Italian group, I probably count as an Italian community leader.

Yeah maybe. Sort of.

Last year that community involvement bore some fruits. I got an invite to a gala dinner organised by the Italian Embassy. I also had a pass to the VIP section of the Italian Festa. So some fun events there.

This year, it does not appear that the Italian government is having a gala dinner of any sort in Melbourne, and nor was there a VIP section in the Italian Festa (over the past weekend). I suppose that this was due to reduced funding from the Italian government for such activities.

Similarly, as I have written in this blog recently, the catering at the Treasury Wine Estate AGM last week was rather underwhelming compared to last week. There were hardly any canapés, and only a few trays of lamingtons as dessert.

Nor did the wine last to 1pm like last year. The fun ended at 12.30pm.

One of the more sour shareholders at that AGM did also raise a question about the number of staff parties which Treasury employees seem to hold.

Looking at these incidents all coming together at the same time, I get the feeling that probably, this year, there is less money flying about to pay for hospitality. That in itself is probably an economic indicator.

Vale Ace Frehley

I’m actually not objective about the significance of Kiss as a part of rock history. I’m not sure whether their impact is that of a true super group, or whether they were just a niche band with a large and loyal fanbase.

That’s because they have a large foothold on my childhood memories. Just like ABBA when they toured in 1976, Kiss initiated a giant frenzy in Australia in 1980 in the lead up to their November tour.

Or… at least it was the case in my primary school, where Kissmania ruled. The perspective of an eleven year old is a tad more limited than that of an adult.

Forty five years on, I believe my brother still has the combined collection of Kiss cards we had at the time (I let him have all of mine).

The concert at VFL Park in Waverley in November 1980 drew 45,000 people. That I remember details about a concert which I did not even attend is significant.

I’ve been to see Kiss three times since then, twice in the 1990s, and once about three years ago. Those concerts, at the Tennis Centre, were only a third the scale of that first tour in 1980.

When Eric Carr, the replacement drummer when Peter Criss got booted out, died in 1991, the number of death notices in the Herald Sun was quite impressive.

‘Goodbye Little Caesar’, one of those death notices read.

Now Ace Frehley, the original lead guitarist from Kiss, has died, after falling and injuring his head in his home studio.

74 is not that old – not when compared to the fragile souls I visit regularly in nursing homes in my local area. So I cannot help but feel a degree of shock at this.

But Ace did not live a sedate life. He partied quite hard, and drank very heavily for much of his career, hence causing his forced departure from Kiss in the early 1980s. Given that I have read the autobiographies of all four original members of the band, I am skeptical about the sincerity of the loud lamentations from Gene Simmons and Paul Stanley. Gene did seriously bag Ace in his memoir, Kiss And Make Up, some 20 years ago. Ace returned the favour, somewhat more articulately, in his own memoir, No Regrets, 5 years later.

But Ace is dead, and perhaps Gene and Paul have felt it best to bury the hatchet in memory of their lost band mate, rather than out of commercial self interest. After all, no man is an island, and all that. Ace’s death might well remind them of their own mortality, and indeed of that of all of us.

I cannot help but feel sad about Ace passing, as it represents the severing of yet another of the links to my childhood, to the frenzy which enveloped my school for most of 1980.

At the Treasury Wine Estate AGM

As is now my custom, I attended the Treasury Wine Estate AGM on Thursday.

This time I planned in advance – a friend got a proxy from his wife to attend and two other friends who are not shareholders simply bluffed their way in.

Even though the share price has crashed in recent days, the meeting was relatively calm, although I would have to say that I do not find the governance issues raised by the Australian Shareholders Association monitors to be particularly original nor convincing.

What did disappoint me though was the quality of the catering. Last year was best practice – two hours of open bar and lots of canapés and yummy desserts. That would rate 10/10. This year, hardly any canapés and dessert was a tray of lamingtons. I rate that 4/10.

But having three of my friends there to share the freeloading fun made up for it a little bit.

Why Does The Treasury Wine Estate Share Price Remind Me Of A Tom Petty Song Today?

I just checked my share portfolio on the Commsec app and am reminded that my decision to liquidate most of my Treasury Wine Estate shares two and a half months ago was an unintentionally astute move (unlike most of my share purchase and sale decisions).

You see, this morning Treasury did a revised earnings guidance in which they advised that ‘depletions’ (whatever that means) for Penfolds in China have not met their expectations and that they have to withdraw their earnings guidance.

So the share price went, yet again, into free fall (hence my musical ear worm right now is Tom Petty’s song ‘Free Fallin”), crashing from about $7.30 at open to $6.30.

I booked about $2000 in capital loss at the start of August, whereas if I had sold at the time of the last AGM, I would have booked a $2000 capital gain (which would have been concessional as I had held the shares over 12 months).

The main consolation is that instead of holding 1000 shares, I only hold 100 shares now, so my loss is only around $150 and I have no intention of selling that minuscule parcel as it is my AGM ticket.

Which reminds me. The AGM is on Thursday at 10am. It will close at 11am. At that time, there will be the most swish corporate AGM catering of any ASX listed company, with two hours of open bar with Treasury Wine products. That includes Penfolds Bin 28 shiraz.

How much of that can I drink to make up my losses?

Anywho, I mentioned this at the Soul Pattinson Investor Briefing (a very well catered event) last week to an acquaintance from one of my Bottle Clubs, and he will crash the AGM to enjoy the catering with me. If any of my other friends wants to join me, please send me a text and I will send the details.

Australian Rules Football Enters A Golden Age In Queensland

In March 2005, I decided to take a two week holiday and travel around various parts of Northern Australia I had not yet visited: Ayers Rock (my heart skipped a beat when I first saw it from the plane), Alice Springs, Darwin, Townsville and Cairns.

I ended the holiday with a few days in Brisbane, which I have visited from time to time, albeit rarely (I am much more familiar with Canberra, Perth and Adelaide than with Brisbane or Sydney).

During my sojourn in Brisbane, I stopped into the Storey Bridge Hotel, which is not far from the Gabba. There was going to be an AFL game at the Gabba that night, it being around the start of the AFL season, and the pub was going to get busy. When talking to the bar staff and expressing my surprise that a rugby league city like Brisbane was going to have much interest in AFL, I was told that due to the threepeat (ie the three premierships in a row which the Brisbane Lions won in 2001, 2002 and 2003) the Lions were now as big as the Broncos (ie the NRL team) in terms of local support.

Last time I was in Brisbane was in August 2015, when I did go and watch the Western Bulldogs play the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, and I must say that it’s a great place to watch football.

Even though some would say that the early 2000s were an excellent time for Australian Rules Football in Queensland, I would argue that the events of the past month have seen it enter a Golden Age.

My reasoning for that is the following:

. the obvious – Brisbane won its second premiership in a row yesterday

. the somewhat more subtle fact that Brisbane announced a membership record of 75,000 members this year (as compared to something over 60,000 for the Broncos in the NRL)

. the Gold Coast Suns not only played in its first final (at long bloody last), but it won it and then played off in a semi final against Brisbane

. a Gold Coast player won the Brownlow Medal

. Southport, Gold Coast’s reserves team, played off in the VFL Grand Final (ie the AFL’s main reserves competition).

If I was an AFL official, I would be very happy with how things are looking. The local Gold Coast NRL team, the Titans, has about 16,000 members compared to 30,000 for the Suns. The other two NRL clubs in Queensland, the Dolphins and the Cowboys, also do not have very high membership numbers (29,000 and 11,000 respectively).

I have not done any deep diving into crowd numbers at matches, nor, much more importantly, TV viewership in Queensland, but right now, both Queensland AFL teams are highly competitive at the same time for the first time in history. This is going to turn into strong growth in local interest in Queensland in Australian Rules Football, which can only be good for the AFL and to the detriment of both Rugby codes.

I also should note that the COVID in 2020 (time sure has flown by) did force the AFL to lifeboat the entire competition to Brisbane for that season, and the AFL Grand Final in 2020 was played at the Gabba. This itself, as I reflected at the time, showed how AFL had grown into a mature competition which could play away from its cradle in Victoria and probably caused interest in AFL in Queensland to increase.

It is a shame that the Gabba is not going to be rebuilt as a larger stadium for the Olympics in 2032, but this does have a silver lining in that there will be no interruption to the momentum currently enjoyed by the Brisbane Lions in terms of disruption caused by a home ground rebuild.

Aliens Are Amongst Us In Avondale Heights….

Apparently mental illness is quite common, affecting one in five people per annum. I’m not sure quite how serious such illnesses are, and how many suffer in a way that causes them to lose their grip on reality.

Nor can we always tell between delusions based on mental illness or on something else, such as excessive devotion to religion or to a sporting team.

For instance, in 1997, 4% of Americans surveyed believed that Elvis was still alive. Other surveys suggest that about 30% of Americans believe that Aliens have visited Earth. Not sure how the latter sits with American excessive religiosity.

In my everyday travails around Avondale Heights, I am sometimes reminded that some of the people who share my postcode might not be totally sane, if not actually utterly deluded.

Like, a few months ago, I encountered a woman twice, first when she was walking her dog, and a few days later at the bus stop, who went out of her way to accost me and ask if I noticed that there was more earthquake and volcanic activity lately. She explained that this was because God was angry about gay marriage and was going to punish us unless we turned to Jesus.

As I was in my front garden at the time she was walking her dog, and therefore my place of residence was known to her, I just nodded politely and did not suggest that perhaps she seek professional help.

A few days ago, I had another strange encounter. I had been out in West Maribyrnong, treating myself to a pizza and a bottle of Chianti at Il Palazzo, a very pleasant Italian restaurant. Whilst I had walked the three k to the restaurant, the walk home would involve going uphill for a kilometre from the bridge, something I find less pleasant, especially on a full stomach. Hence I decided to wait for the bus.

The other person waiting for the bus accosted me and asked if I believed in UFOs. Hmmm, I thought to myself. This is going to be an interesting conversation.

I replied that I am skeptical about UFOs and aliens generally, but that I have read widely on this topic and used to regularly buy UFOlogist Magazine right up until it folded a few years ago. [True – I delight in reading such rags, especially as most of the writers within their pages are not exactly either logical or evidence based in their arguments.]

What ensued was a most amusing conversation, in which I was assured by this chap that not only are UFOs real, but he has been abducted by aliens regularly, including from our very own suburb of Avondale Heights, that through them he has flown outside an aeroplane, and has even had sex with aliens – although he was very vague on how exactly any of these encounters (both the flying and the sex) actually happened.

He will be attending the Close Encounters experiencer dinner at the Yarraville Club in November, which apparently is only for those who have experienced alien contact first hand (a pity – I was actually thinking of attending myself).

I, of course, am a gifted conversationalist and was able to keep up my end with my treasure trove of trivia about that amusing pseudo-science we call UFOlogy.

I enlightened him that the reason that the Rubbles in the Flintstone cartoons were named Barney and Betty was directly due to the publicity from the Barney and Betty Hill abduction case not long before. [I am not sure if this is actually the case, but I did not invent it – I read it somewhere in all those non-evidence-based UFO articles I have amused myself with over the years.]

I also shared another more local fun fact – that Frederick Valentich, the pilot who disappeared over Bass Strait in 1978 whilst reporting to ground control that he was being buzzed by a UFO, was also an Avondale Heights resident. This is something that I read in the Wikipedia entry about Avondale Heights – he is one of the four notable residents of our suburb listed, along with comedian Shane Jacobson (whom I have never seen in our streets), former footballer Matthew Lloyd, and convicted manslaughterer Borce Ristevski (Avondale Heights happens to be the Manslaughter Capital of Australia).

Of course, I may be wrong. My smug hold on reality may all be a chimera and aliens may be real and walking amongst in Avondale Heights. But somehow I doubt it.

The Death Of Charlie Kirk – Some Reflections

Some 30 years ago I had a boss who was fond of quoting the poetry of John Donne, the first of the English metaphysical poets from Jacobean times.

More specifically, she liked to make speeches where she quoted solemnly from No Man Is An Island, which is an important passage in English literature:

No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend’s were.
Each man’s death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

The message about one’s humanity is clear: Each man’s death diminishes me. One cannot be truly human unless the death of another human is something to be mourned, not celebrated.

Some of the actions of many people in the past week do cause me pause: the public gloating on social media by many people, particularly those in America with leftist tendencies, over the murder of a conservative American activist Charlie Kirk.

I have, prior to his death, never heard of Charlie Kirk before. I am, as readers of this blog would know already, pretty much to the right of centre with some personally cultural and social conservative views, as well as being politically classical liberal (I dislike the term ‘libertarian’ and a lot of the people who claim to be such). But that does not mean that I follow the various evangelists of the American Right.

I have made it clear that I think a second Trump presidency is at best unfortunate, and nor do I feel comfortable around firearms the way most Americans do. Nor do I, being reluctantly pro-choice, celebrate the reversal of half a century of case law on abortion by the US Supreme Court.

And I especially am not enamoured of the sort of intense Protestant Christianity espoused by many Americans, which seems to have been a signature characteristic of Charlie Kirk.

But the best thing about a truly pluralistic society is that people can agree to disagree peacefully. The alternative to that is somewhere people seek to shoot their religious and political opponents, as in failed nations like Afghanistan and Iraq (places about which, in my former career, I knew far more than I would like to remember).

So how do I feel about the outpouring of vicious self-congratulatory social media espousing joy at the murder of this public figure.

I am appalled. That so many people who claim to have social consciences and strong opinions about their own rights have been celebrating the murder of Charlie Kirk is appalling. That they see his death as a matter for joy casts dark doubt on their own self professed humanity. That they see ultimate violence against someone who would debate their views peacefully suggests that they are zealots who are unfit to live in a free country.

It is with some wry amusement that I observe on my social media feed that ‘cancel culture’ is being turned against these appalling self absorbed individuals, and that they are being named and shamed, and that their employers are being pressured into taking action against them for their vicious comments.

That is America for you, perhaps.

In Australia, we have had three particular instances who have been especially self indulgent in celebrating Mr Kirk’s death.

The first is The Chaser, the irreverent left leaning comedy website. They made a tactless comment about ‘R U OK? Day’ in the context of the murder. This is unbecoming of them, and suggests that in devaluing human life, they are most unfunny, and indeed only toxic.

Then there is Hannah Ferguson. She is also a comedian. And an Ambassador for the Australian Conservation Foundation. She made a very smug post about Charlie Kirk being a victim of gun violence. I wonder whether she regrets that now.

And of course we have the vacuous Abbie Chatfield, whose main claim to fame is a physical beauty which is only skin deep. She has been able to make a career out of being an influencer for several years based on her superficial beauty, and has been able to project her equally shallow political opinions (the few of which I have seen in the more mainstream media are more irritating than disagreeable) through her social media platforms. She used her smart phone to message something after Kirk’s death about ‘hating’ him. Not ‘disagreeing’ with him – actually hating him.

And then she complains that this ‘hate’ is being reflected back at her through the dark extreme depths of social media? She probably should not have cast the first stone – although I do not think anyone making threats of violence (either direct or indirect) against her is any better than her morally.

I do however think that the various sponsors of her influencer career should reconsider their links to someone like her who publicly states that she hates anyone, let along a murder victim.

But I think the bottom line is, as John Donne would have expressed far more poetically than I, that we are all human beings. We are diminished by the murder of any of our fellow humans, particularly someone who is peacefully expressing their opinions. Celebrating such violence is to diminish your own humanity, and your suitability to live in a peaceful pluralistic society.

Jeff Babb – An Elegy For A Writer

My friend Jeff Babb died this morning.  I will miss him.

It is hard to accept that only three weeks ago, we met up for coffee and cake at a café in Keilor Road near his home.

How does one measure the worth of a man?  In the life that he lived and the people that he loved, or in the way that he faced his death?

Let’s start with how he faced his death.  Jeff was diagnosed with a brain tumour in January 2024.  At that time, he was given a prognosis that his life expectancy was only another 18 months – something he casually mentioned to me over lunch only a few months ago.  

Yet given the knowledge that his days were almost certainly very numbered, he faced his illness without fear, with stoic resolve, cheerfulness and optimism, enjoying every day he had with the great love of life that he possessed, rather than with dread which would have poisoned those days.

He took steps to sort out his financials to save his children and wife hassles in administering his estate after he went, thinking of them, rather than of his own imminent passing.

How many of us can face our own deaths so bravely?

I would rather talk about his full and happy life, albeit one which, at 72, ended far sooner than any of us would have hoped for him.  I feel the loss for his grandchildren, who have been robbed of his presence too early.

I first met him in mid 1994 – although I had known of him for several years before that.  He had studied at the University of Western Australia under Paddy O’Brien, through whom Jeff and I shared two friends in common, as well as several acquaintances in common.

Hence it was almost inevitable that we would become friends.

For almost thirty years, he was a contributor to News Weekly, mostly writing on his area of expertise, Communist China and Taiwan.  

He was as fluent in Mandarin as any non-native speaker could be.  At a barbecue at my home a decade ago, he spoke with a colleague of mine who had studied Mandarin in China, and my colleague observed that Jeff had a scholarly accent.

He mostly made a living for many years as a writer and journalist, including almost a decade as a copy sub editor of the South China Post in Taiwan.

In 2018, a friend of mine was disturbed to learn that the ‘Real Bodies Exhibition’ was touring Australia.  This is a grotesquely obscene display of the remains of various human bodies, treated in a way that preserves them, showing off the muscles and bones and organs under the skin.  It originated in Communist China, and it was rumoured that the bodies were executed victims of the regime.  My friend asked me if there was anything she could do about something so wrong.

I rang Jeff and told him about this Exhibition, suggesting that it was exactly the sort of matter which News Weekly would be interested in publishing, given that it concerned the dignity and sanctity of human life, and the failures of communist regimes to observe such.

The result was a two page article in Newsweekly which served as the cover story.   Jeff gave a solemn voice to the silent anonymous lives who had been sacrificed to create that grotesque exhibition.

He was a man of integrity, even when it came at his own cost.  Several years ago, he had a contract to teach the introductory course in China for a Melbourne based TAFE College, which was the prerequisite before those students could enrol in Australia.  He made the honest mistake of failing everyone who either did not meet the 80% mandatory attendance requirement for the course, or who did not put in the required coursework to an acceptable standard.  That College did not offer him a second contract.   He rightly saw that as a badge of honour.

In saying goodbye to my old friend, who was constantly striving to make his living as a writer because it was something that brought him such joy, I am reminded of Banjo Paterson’s poem A Song of the Pen:

Not for the love of women toil we, we of the craft,
Not for the people’s praise;
Only because our goddess made us her own and laughed,
Claiming us all our days,
Claiming our best endeavour — body and heart and brain
Given with no reserve —
Niggard is she towards us, granting us little gain:
Still, we are proud to serve.

Not unto us is given choice of the tasks we try,
Gathering grain or chaff;
One of her favoured servants toils at an epic high,
One, that a child may laugh.

Yet if we serve her truly in our appointed place,
Freely she doth accord
Unto her faithful servants always this saving grace,
Work is its own reward!

Council Rates Rise Again

In the past couple of weeks council rates have arrived in our letterboxes.

This is, in my extended family, always a source of annoyance. Local councillors are rarely seen except when kissing babies at election time – I only met my local councillor when, during the Federal Election, she was door knocking on behalf of the newly installed Labor candidate. Councillors often talk up what they will do, but rarely ever deliver.

Sadly, increasing council rates is one thing that they never promise, but which they always deliver on.

In my case, council rates are up 7.5% this financial year (as compared to the supposed average rise of 3% in the rates notice fact sheet) – that is for the City of Moonee Valley. On the other side of the river in the City of Maribyrnong, whence my mother and brother live, rates are up higher, much higher. A quick look at my mother’s rates bill last week indicates an increase of 19.7%.

Given that CPI, the most commonly used measure of inflation, went up by 2.8% during the 2024-25 financial year, Victorian councils are obviously not doing a good job of keeping their spending under control.

Without bothering to look at what they spend the council rates on, which is in a fact sheet enclosed with the demand for payment on the first notice, I can come up with two main reasons for rapid growth in council rates.

The first is that local government is run by comparative amateurs, some of whom are there because they have such dodgy backgrounds that the local party machine puts them into local government as a consolation prize for being unelectable to an actual parliament, and some others because they are enthusiastically supported by property developers with less than altruistic motives. The Victorian government, which is not exactly the doyen of integrity, has in recent times had to appoint monitors to moderate the behaviour of elected councils and otherwise strip them of planning powers. Sackings of councils, whilst not as commonplace as in the past, have usually been a sign of serious ethical malaise.

These councillors, in their amateurish performances, are going to sign off uncritically on the budgets which are put in front of them by the somewhat bloated local government bureaucracies which are run by professional managers. They do not know any better, and even if they had the political will or ideological determination to put a red line through several items such as community or small business grants or festivals, they would get flustered by the professional managers they supposedly oversight and then overruled by the local government minister.

The second reason is cost shifting by the state government. I have this mantra that the state government owes $30,000 for every man, woman and child in Victoria. The budget figure is actually getting worse every day. It is a very easy political sleight of hand to cost shift as much as you can into local government, such as the emergency services levy, and then to raise it as high as you can. It is also, when you are a technocratic government with socialist underpinnings, a very ideologically rewarding move to stiff home owners, even those who are elderly widows and pensioners. Cost shifting has been a major problem in Victoria since the early days of the Bracks government, which was very good at spending beyond its means, but which looks like the epitome of probity compared to the current bunch.

Which leaves me and other members of my family with large rates increases on our modest homes – far beyond what the councils and their masters in the state government promise.

Would or could it be any different? I somehow doubt it. This is a level of government where the lack of scrutiny, combined with the ruthless technocracy of its overseers in Spring Street, is not going to ever improve.

Swooping Season….

I have never actually gotten around to seeing any Alfred Hitchcock films – except for Psycho. Hitchcock having died around the time I started high school, his films really are for an older generation, and not as accessible.

Yes, I am a bit of a Philistine.

But I did read the short story on which he based the movie The Birds. It was in one of my optional additional English classes in 1984, and was written by Daphne Du Maurier, a fairly famous writer in her time (fun fact, her father George wrote the novel Trilby, which gave us the name for a type of hat and also the word ‘Svengali’).

It is around this time of year, when spring is about to break, that this short story and movie, which are all about birds relentlessly attacking people, comes to mind. In recent years, I have come to mark the start of spring not by the various trees in the Prunus genus sprouting into blossom (as I write I peer out into my garden and notice that the peach trees look like bursting into flower at any moment), but by all the magpies who suddenly turn hostile.

There’s a small park around the corner which is the size of two vacant house blocks. I regularly walk past it. It, and the adjoining large nature strip, are festooned by mature gum trees. These trees are the territory of several very aggressive magpies.

Since mid August, they have been making the fact that this is their territory known to all passersby through the simple device of constantly swooping on anyone who walks by.

And so I know that spring is here, although from the temperature outside today, you would not know it.