Which will end first – the Bear Market or my toilet paper supply?

When the Australian Stock Exchange closed this afternoon, it was officially down 20% from the record high in February. A 20% decline from a peak is officially regarded as a bear market.

How long will this last? I think the distance in the GFC from peak to bottom was about 16 months – November 2007 til March 2009.

I plan to measure it according to my toilet paper supply. I did an inventory the other day and found that I currently own 85 rolls of toilet paper – the result of steady purchasing and hoarding over the better part of a decade, along with the quaint habit of collecting rolls from hotel rooms, along with the other toiletries. As it is estimated that a person goes through 2 rolls of toilet paper per week, I will be able to last 42 1/2 weeks til my supply of toilet paper runs out. That’s almost 10 months til I will need to buy anymore.

And I am able to improvise. I have paper towels and tissues in abundant supply as well. On top of this, I spend much of my time at work, or at large shopping centres, where the toilet paper is provided for you.

Given that bear markets last on average 14 months, I think that my toilet paper stash will end before the bear market does.

And perhaps that should be when I start investing in the share market again – when my current supply of toilet paper ends, I need to start putting my hard earned cash gradually back into shares (or, in my case, Exchange Traded Funds and Listed Investment Companies).

Published by Ernest Zanatta

Narrow minded Italian Catholic Conservative Peasant from Footscray.

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